Mortgage Market News and Insight

For the Weekend of January 4^th, 2025

 

Hawaii’s Most Read Mortgage Publication for 17 Years

 

Volume 17 – Issue 17

One Heck of a Year! (Part 2)

Was 2024 a good year?  I think I can speak for the majority of those in real estate and mortgage financing that 2024 was a year we would not like to see repeated.  As for 2025, I’ll share with you the forecast for interest rates and home appreciation in the next couple of weeks.

 

This week I’ll conclude the review of some of the major stories I covered in this weekly newsletter for the last 6 months of 2024.  If you missed last week’s newsletter, you can find it here: https://www.hawaiimortgage.net/?p=16976.  There’s plenty of stories that amazingly are still relevant today.  You’ll read the

 

There was a week here and there that I didn’t publish, but I was able to share a newsletter with you for 45 of the 52 weeks in 2024!  Each newsletter is available for review on our website https://www.hawaiimortgage.net/newsletter/.  They are in chronological order, the most recent newsletter first.

 

Enjoy our review below for news we lived through for the second half of 2024.

 

 

 

I have also hyperlinked the specific newsletter in the review below.  Just clink on the date for that newsletter, and it will take you to it directly.

 

 

July 2024:

 

In the July 6, 2024 Newsletter, I shared a first-hand confrontation with a neighbor over who owns the property from the edge of the street to the house property line.

 

For the July 27, 2024 Newsletter, I reported how the Maui Planning Commission succumbed to public pressure and voted to remove the ability for over 7,000 condos to be rented out on a short-term basis.  I then provide insight as to why is to short-sighted, wrong, and won’t stand up to a court challenge.

 

 

August 2024:

 

In the 8/10/2024 Newsletter, I did an update to a hugely popular article written in 2023 about criminals trying to steal the title of one of my newsletter subscribers.  It’s a good read to learn how to protect yourself from bad actors.

 

For the 8/17/2024 Newsletter, we discussed how a landmark class action lawsuit on the mainland will change how real estate agents are paid.  This is an important article to refresh yourself with, especially if you are going to buy a property in the near future.

 

The 8/24/2024 Newsletter went over the shortcomings of the Governor Green’s emergency proclamation to address the huge insurance issue facing everyone in the state.  Maybe those that were upset at my criticism will realize that almost a half year later, nothing has changed.

 

The last newsletter for August on 8/31/2024 discussed a strategy to hedge your bet on a mortgage refinance.  I also reported on a special loan program for those impacted by the Lahaina fire.  The program is available to both owners that lost their homes, and renters too.

 

 

September 2024:

 

The 9/7/2024 Newsletter had a commentary about VP Kamala Harris’ proposal to give a $25,000 housing incentive – Does the housing industry need a stimulus?

 

The 9/14/2024 Newsletter delved into a strategy for setting a target rate for a future refinance.  There was also a discussion of the BLS jobs report and that a vast number of foreign born where getting employed while US born were becoming unemployed.

 

The 9/21/2024 Newsletter reported on the attempt of government leaders on Maui to institute “rent stabilization” – better known as Rent Control.  There’s also an important article in understanding how Fed rate cuts impact mortgage rates.  That’s something still relevant in 2025 and beyond.

 

A great article appeared in the 9/28/2024 Newsletter about what to government calls “Fraud for Housing”.  Have you been guilty of this practice?  The same newsletter reported good news that Maui decided to not proceed with rent control.

 

 

October 2024:

 

In the 10/5/2024 Newsletter, there’s an article about the cost of natural disasters and how we should ultimately pay to help Americans hit with tragedy.  There’s also more commentary of the fishy BLS labor numbers, again!

 

For the 10/12/2024 Newsletter, there’s two great articles about mortgage interest rates.  First, details that rates never move in a straight line, up or down.  And the second explains why after the Fed rate cut mortgage interest rates moved higher.

 

The 10/19/2024 Newsletter delves into the proposal on Oahu to tax vacant homes.  A bad idea that is still alive in the Honolulu City Council.  There’s also an article about the updated flood maps from FEMA that will require thousands of homes on Oahu to now carry flood insurance.

 

The 10/26/2024 Newsletter chronicled prior natural disasters in Hawaii and why our island homes are not as safe as we think.  The second article give you some good pointers to considering buying a home and what to look for when deciding if the property is in a risky area or not.

 

 

November 2024:

 

For the 11/2/2024 Newsletter, I handicapped what to expect from mortgage interest rates depending on which candidate won the Presidency.  I also blamed the media for inciting the animosity felt in our country today.

 

The 11/9/2024 Newsletter tries to make sense at why mortgage rates are going back up, after the candidate that said they were going to cut inflation and the federal budget won the election.

 

The 11/16/2024 Newsletter explores the shady world of Mortgage Consultants, and why they are just a scam.

 

For anyone that has a mortgage, the 11/23/2024 Newsletter explains what mortgage servicing is, and what happens when your mortgage gets transferred to another company.

 

 

December 2024:

 

In the 12/7/2024 Newsletter, I explain in detail the differences between a Hard-Pull credit report and a Soft-Pull credit report.  I also report on the new conforming loan limits in effect for 2025.

 

The 12/14/2024 Newsletter exposes the sneaky frankly dishonest way the state has given Hawaii residents a tax cut.  You’ll learn why you’ll still pay through the nose to live in Hawaii.

 

We concluded the year with the 12/21/2024 Newsletter that explains why real estate transactions are public information.  The reasons may surprise you.

 

 

This year ended with the holidays happening in the middle of the week.  The Monday before Christmas, with all the kids out on break, many people took that day off to give themselves a 5-day holiday.  The same was true this past week with New Years.

 

2025 is here.  Let’s all get back to work and make this year a wonderful, healthy, and prosperous one!

 

 

 

 

 

And now the week’s economic news…….

 

Stronger Home Sales

With a lack of major economic news, it was a relatively quiet week for mortgage markets.  Rates ended slightly lower but remain near their highest levels since May.

 

The most significant economic report released this week by the Institute of Supply Management revealed a modest upside surprise.  The ISM national manufacturing index rose to 49.3, a little above expectations, but this was still its ninth straight month under 50.  Since readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the sector and below 50 a contraction, this report reinforces yet again that manufacturers continue to struggle.

 

In November, sales of existing homes rose 5% from October and were 6% higher than a year ago.  The median existing-home price of $406,100 was up 5% from last year at this time.  Inventories remain stuck at historically low levels, standing at just a 3.8-month supply nationally, far below the 6-month supply typical in a balanced market.  On a brighter note, though, inventories were 18% higher than a year ago.  The results were similar for sales of new homes, which increased 6% from October and were 9% higher than a year ago.

 

While home sales posted nice gains in November, the outlook going forward might be less rosy due to higher mortgage rates.  One hint came from the weakness in mortgage applications this week.  According to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), applications to refinance fell 36% from the prior week but still were 10% higher than one year ago.  Purchase applications dropped 13% from the prior week and were down 17% from last year at this time.

 

 

 

 

Next Week

Investors will continue to look for additional guidance from Fed officials on their plans regarding future monetary policy.  For economic reports, the ISM national services sector index will be released on Monday.  The detailed minutes from the December 18 Fed meeting will come out on Wednesday.  The key Employment report will be released on Friday, and these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation are always closely watched.

 

 

Until next week…….