Compliments of
Alan Van Zee
President | NMLS #: 297154
Hawaii Mortgage Company, Inc.
Company NMLS #: 232582
Alan Van Zee is one of the top producing Mortgage Originators in the state, originating over $2,000,000,000 to date. He has written and published this weekly newsletter for the past 18 years. It is the most widely read mortgage, real estate, and finance publication in Hawaii.
Hawaii Mortgage Company, now in our 26th year of providing mortgages to the people of Hawaii, is proud to have a complaint-free history. We make sure our clients are happy!
News and Insight
For the Weekend of August 8th, 2026
Hawaii’s Most Read Mortgage, Real Estate, and Finance Publication for 18 Years
Volume 18 – Issue 44
The Economy, the War, and Buying a Home
The latest batch of economic reports that have come out recently show the US economy is showing some weakness. Everything is more expensive. Gas in Hawaii is over $5.00 per gallon – unless you get a lucky day at Costco. And it seems no matter how much we bomb Iran, the fanatical people in power would rather see their entire country destroyed than abandon their plans for nuclear weapons.
With those thoughts in mind, along with mortgage rates still elevated higher that anyone would like, it’s logical to think now may not be a good time to buy real estate – and that’s where you’d be wrong. The data below is from the state’s Department of Business and Economic Development (DBED). It shows the average single family home price from March of 2024 to March of 2026 – the latest data they have.
If you look closely, you’ll see what every real estate agent out there knows – home prices are relatively flat. That’s significant because with all the uncertainty we’ve had over the last few years, we’ve not had the feared “correction” many claimed was due at any moment. The only exception is the crash of Maui’s short-term vacation rental units. That was caused by government intervention with Bill 9 outlawing approximately 6,000 units of their highest and best use. Those condos have seen a drop of around 35%.
If we haven’t had a crash yet, why would it be a good time to buy, you ask?
That’s because even with the challenges our housing market has seen in the past couple of years, home values have remained elevated. That fact is a precursor to higher home prices in the near future as interest rates drop. When mortgages become more affordable to a greater number of prospective buyers, that added demand for an already limited supply of inventory will force higher home prices. We saw that happen in 2021 through 2023.
You may not like the cost of homes today. And no one, especially us mortgage people, don’t like where rates are right now, but think ahead. If you buy today, then when rates drop, you can always refinance to a new lower rate. What you cannot do is wait for rates to drop, then buy the home for a price no longer available. Let’s do some quick math for a comparison. The comparison is called the Cost of Waiting.
Now you might notice that you’ll save over $200 per month on the mortgage if you wait a year, but you’ve also lost a year of appreciation. Even taking that reduction of expense into consideration, buying now will still net you $43,731 in added wealth.
The message today is simple. The crash isn’t coming. Don’t wait for rates to come down. Buy today and get on the appreciation escalator.
If you would like a custom review for your specific price point and down payment,
my contact information is at the top of the newsletter.
More Information to Reference and Share
What are the most frequently asked questions I get asked as a mortgage professional? Those questions and the answers to those questions are now easy to access and share with your friends, family, or clients – if a real estate professional.
We’ve created a master library of mortgage topics on our website. Each article takes just a few minutes to read. Each has quick takeaways and points to consider. Each is easy to read and easy to understand.
Topics include:
- Mortgage Pre-Qualification vs. Pre-Approval
- Which Mortgage Loan is Right for Me?
- Credit Scores
- Condo-tels
- Lava Zones
There’s several more, and more being added all the time. If you want to gain some knowledge in a quick and easy format, simply visit our website and click the FAQ tab, our use this link to get there directly:
https://www.hawaiimortgage.net/faq/
As always, if you have a specific question about your personal situation, I’m more than happy to get you the answers.
My contact information is at the top of the newsletter.
And now the week’s economic news…….
Job Gains Fall Short
Mortgage rates continued to see a bit of volatility this week, reacting to changing oil prices and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. However, the biggest driver came at the end of the week, when weaker than expected labor market data pushed mortgage rates lower.
In July, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, surprising economists who had expected employers to add about 80,000 jobs. On top of that, payroll numbers for the previous two months were revised lower by a combined 103,000 jobs. Construction and healthcare continued to add jobs, while leisure and hospitality saw significant declines - possibly due to the conclusion of the World Cup.
Wage growth also came in softer than expected. Average hourly earnings increased by just 0.1% for the month, far below the consensus forecast. On an annual basis, wages rose 3.2%, down from 3.4% the previous month and the slowest pace since May 2021. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1% from 4.2%, but the improvement was not entirely encouraging. The drop was largely driven by people leaving the labor force rather than stronger hiring, with the participation rate (the percentage of working-age people in the labor force) falling to the lowest level since March 2021.
We also received two closely watched reports on business activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The services sector continued to expand, though at a slightly slower pace than expected, while manufacturing posted its strongest reading since May 2022. Both sectors remain in expansion territory, suggesting businesses are still growing despite economic headwinds. Shifting consumer preferences and higher tariffs on imported goods have helped domestic manufacturers narrow the performance gap with service firms over the last few years.
Bottom Line: Investors are continuing to weigh a mix of slowing economic data, stubborn inflation, and global uncertainty. While inflation has cooled from its peak, it's still above the Federal Reserve's target, which is likely to keep policymakers cautious. As a result, mortgage rates will probably remain volatile from day to day as investors react to Fed comments, economic data, and geopolitical events.
Next Week
Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East and the proposed deal to ease tensions. Investors also will monitor comments from Fed officials about future monetary policy. For economic data, Existing Home Sales will come out on Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services, will be released on Wednesday. The Producer Price Index (PPI), another monthly inflation indicator, will come out on Thursday. Retail Sales will be released on Friday.
Until next week….
*** Please note that Freddie Mac publishes their weekly rate report on Wednesday mornings from data received Monday and Tuesday.
The graph above is intended to shown rate trends, and not “today’s current rate”. ***
Reviews From Our Past Clients
With every client, we promise to provide you with a comprehensive analysis of your mortgage needs, the best service possible, and the best rates we can find. We make it our mission to have every transaction close with our clients happy with the service we provided. Browse through the hundreds of reviews we’ve received from our clients posted on both Google and Zillow.com, and read what they thought of their experience using Hawaii Mortgage Company.
Google Link:
Hawaii Mortgage Company Review on Google.com
Zillow.com Link:
Hawaii Mortgage Company Reviews on Zillow.com
Our Rate Quote System is Available to You
Our automated rate quoting system is live. Now you can check rates and try different scenarios 24-hours a day. Remember, it’s just a computer. For non-standard rate quotes, such as construction, vacant land, and other specialty programs, you’ll still need to give a call.
Here’s the link: https://www.hawaiimortgage.net/todays-rates/
Do you think all lenders are the same?
There is a difference when you use Hawaii Mortgage Company for your financing. Here’s a short video telling you why:
Broker vs. Banker?
Click the link below to get a quick lesson on why working with a Mortgage Broker will benefit you on your next transaction.
