Mortgage Market News and Insight June 18

Mortgage Market News and Insight

For the Weekend of June 15th, 2024

Hawaii’s Most Read Mortgage Publication for 16 Years 

Volume 16 – Issue 40

Compliments of

Alan Van Zee

President | NMLS #: 297154
Hawaii Mortgage Company, Inc.
Company NMLS #: 232582

Phone: 808.988.6622
alan@hawaiimortgage.net

Alan Van Zee is one of the top producing Mortgage Originators in the state, originating over $2,000,000,000 to date.  He has written and published this weekly newsletter for the past 16 years.  It is the most widely read mortgage publication in Hawaii.

Hawaii Mortgage Company celebrates its 24th anniversary providing mortgages to the people of Hawaii and is proud to continuously earn an A+ rating from the BBB of Hawaii.   

Condo Insurance Issue Hit Home

I received a letter this week from the Board of the Association for an investment condo I own.  It seems that our project in East Oahu has insufficient insurance coverage.  What the letter contains and the options they provided will shed light on the issue plaguing most of the state.  I’ll also share my thoughts as to what the association needs to do to address the situation.

Section 514B-143 (a)(C) of the Hawaii Revised Statues provides that unless otherwise provided by the Association’s declaration or bylaws, the Association must purchase property insurance covering “the full insurable replacement cost of the property”, including increased cost of construction due to building code requirements.

This only makes sense, as the primary fiduciary duty of the HOA is to protect and maintain the assets of the project.  In the case of our project, Mawa’ena Kai, marina fronting 2-story project with 104 units in Hawaii Kai.  The project is constructed of wood.  The current estimated cost to rebuild if totally destroyed is $56 million.  I don’t know how it happened, but the association currently only carries $10 million in coverage.  I can’t seem to get an answer from anyone on either the board or the professional management company as to how long this gap has existed.

The letter from the board went on to explain that projects like Mawa’ena Kai are having difficulty obtaining additional coverage due to the changes in how insurance companies evaluate risk of loss in our Aloha state.  Hawaii has now been placed in the high-risk category for determining premiums.  In the last couple of years, the amount of insurance claims filed in our state has exploded.  This is not only due to the Lahaina fire, but most of the high-rise condo buildings in our state were built prior to 1980.  These projects are now 50-70 years old and suffering from bursting old pipes.  Least we do not forget that most of these buildings also don’t have fire sprinkler systems.

The single-family home market has also seen their fair share of claims in the past few years.  I had a friend that bought a home in Makiki four years ago.  He told me that shortly after they purchased the home, they were able to get a completely new roof, paid for through an insurance claim.  I was also at a small gathering at another friend’s home recently.  I met a very nice guy and started talking.  When I asked what he did for a living, he said he worked for various roofing companies.  His job was to drive around looking at roofs that needed to be replaced.  He would approach the homeowner telling them how with his help they could get a new roof by filing an insurance claim.  Makes you wonder why we see so many roofing commercials on TV these days.

The problem of insurance companies losing money in our market is so severe it is impacting home purchasers the ability to obtain coverage on the home they wish to purchase.  As a Mortgage Broker, we help our clients obtain multiple insurance quotes for the home they are buying.  We have found that if you are buying a home with an old roof, you are not going to find an insurance company willing to issue you a policy.  If that asphalt shingle roof is over 15 years old, it will be difficult to obtain coverage.

Returning to the insurance issue with my condo, the board stated that to obtain the required coverage, they would need to buy coverage from three separate companies, as no single company wanted to have that great of an amount of total exposure in one project.  They also needed get this insurance from what’s called “surplus lines”.  This is another term for insurance carriers with offices outside of our state and not subject to the constraint of the State’s Insurance Commissioner and his ability to regulate what they charge.

The additional coverage is going to cost almost $500,000 per year.  That’s about $5,000 per unit in additional AOAO expense each owner will need to pony up through an increase in the monthly maintenance fees collected.

But wait!  The board dangled an amazing solution to the owners, and this is the primary focus for today that I want every condo owner to understand.

The board suggested that as an alternative, an amendment to the association’s declarations and bylaws could be passed that would allow the association to not fully insure the project.  State law says the association must get full coverage unless 67% of the owners agree to carry less insurance.

I understand as well as anyone that we are all feeling the pinch of hard economic times.  This added insurance will more than double my monthly HOA fee.  It will increase from $744 to $1,638 going forward.  While many may not be able to afford such an increase, the ramifications of electing to go with insufficient insurance coverage are severe.

The board’s letter went on to point out that there are serious factors to take into consideration.  They stated “For example, if the property is not insured for its full replacement value of $56 million and a catastrophe causes more than $10 million in damages, the association would not have enough insurance to restore the property.  This could result in large special assessments, bankruptcy or possible termination of the project”.

“There is also the possibility that mortgages to purchase or refinance units would not be available because the project is not insured for its full replacement cost.  And its also possible that lending institutions may declare existing mortgages in default if the property is not insured for its full replacement cost.”

No matter the cost, there’s no ethical way the project should go forward without sufficient insurance coverage.  This lead me to the next set of questions for the AOAO, and you should be asking the same questions to your board:

  • Was the previous coverage more than $10M but was reduced by the carrier?
  • Was the previous coverage 100% replacement coverage?
  • Has the replacement cost of the project increased in the last 2 years?
  • What was it in 2022 and 2023?
  • Is this policy only for fire?  One of the exclusions listed is wind.
  • If this policy excludes wind (hurricane), what are the policy limits for that policy?
  • Did the board shop around and obtain quotes from other insurance carriers?

It is my understanding that our association only obtained quotes from their current insurance provider.  That’s seems very lazy.  With such a huge amount of money going forward, I would think shopping around would be a high priority.  I also want to know if the board was asleep at the wheel.  Did the project have insufficient coverage for the past few years, yet no one did anything about it?  It would sure be strange that $10 million was okay last year, but now the project’s value has gone up to $56 million in one year?

There’s been lots of talk about the State stepping in and somehow rescuing condo and homeowners from this insurance crisis.  That’s not going to happen.  The state tried its hand in the past when it set up the “Hurricane Relief Fund” to offer insurance for homeowners after Hurricane Iniki, which forced many insurance carriers to halt offering coverage.  That policy of last resort did provide homeowners with a means to get insurance when none was available, but the premiums weren’t cheap.  The State also levied a tax on all real estate transactions to help fund the program.  And here’s a shot of irony - during the life of the program, Hawaii didn’t have any hurricanes.  Within a few years insurance companies were once again writing hurricane policies and the fund was no longer needed.  What happened to all the money collected from the real estate transactions and policy premiums?  If you guessed the state refunded the money, you’d be wrong.  The fund was closed, and the money was transferred to the general fund.  In other words, the state spent it on other things.

The bottom line is that condo associations and owners cannot gamble on the chance something bad won’t happen.  Insurance is a critical necessity.  What we are all experiencing today should be a wakeup call that the cost to own a property, condo or house, can have unexpected increases.  When budgeting how much you can afford, you should also consider that those costs will rise over time.  Qualifying for the maximum today may leave you short tomorrow.

And lastly, don’t expect the government to bail us out.  They don’t have some magic pot of money they can reach into to give to us.  We the people fund the government.  The only money in their pot is the money they’ve already taken from us.

And now the week’s economic news…….

Inflation Eases

The latest inflation data was lower than expected, which was great news for mortgage markets.  The message from the Fed meeting was less favorable, but its impact was minor.  As a result, mortgage rates declined again this week.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely followed inflation indicators.  To reduce short-term volatility and get a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, investors typically look at core CPI, which excludes the food and energy components.  In May, Core CPI was 3.4% higher than a year ago, down from 3.6% last month, and the lowest annual rate of increase since April 2021.

Although this annual rate has fallen from a peak of 6.6% in September 2022, it is still far above the readings around 2.0% seen early in 2021, which is the stated target level of the Fed.  One big reason is that shelter (housing) costs remain elevated and again were responsible for the largest portion of the increase.  However, the CPI data measures shelter costs with a lag, and more timely indicators from other sources suggest that this component will slowly come down later in the year.  Beyond shelter, monthly declines were seen in many areas including new vehicle prices, apparel, airline fares, and auto insurance.

Another major inflation indicator released this week which measures costs for producers also was lower than expected.  The core Producer Price Index (PPI) was 2.3% higher than a year ago, down from an annual rate of 2.4% last month, and well below the consensus forecast.

As expected, there was no change in the federal funds rate on Wednesday, and the Fed meeting statement was very similar to the prior one.  Investors were mostly focused on the "dot plot" forecasts, which were more hawkish (in favor of tighter monetary policy) than expected.  Officials project that there will be just one 25 basis point rate cut this year, down from three in the last set of dot plots released in March.  Officials also raised their estimate of the long-run level for the federal funds rate to 2.8% from 2.6%.  Despite this outlook from the Fed, most investors still anticipate that there will be two rate cuts this year and that the first will take place in September.

Mortgage applications have benefited from the recent decline in rates.  According to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), applications to refinance jumped 28% from last week and also were 28% higher than one year ago.  Purchase applications rose 9% from the prior week but still were down 12% from last year at this time.

Next Week

Investors will continue to watch for Fed officials to elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy.  For economic reports, Retail Sales will be released on Tuesday.  Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key measure of the health of the economy.  Housing Starts will come out on Thursday and Existing Home Sales on Friday.  Mortgage markets will be closed on Wednesday for Juneteenth.

Until next week…….

Freddie Mac Weekly Average Mortgage Rate 6-8 - 6-6

*** Please note that Freddie Mac publishes their weekly rate report on Wednesday mornings from data received Mondays and Tuesdays.  The graph above is intended to shown rate trends, and not “today’s current rate”. ***

Featured Reviews of the Week

With every client, we promise to provide you with a comprehensive analysis of your mortgage needs, the best service possible, and the best rates we can find.  We would like to share recent reviews our clients posted of their experience with us on one of the largest real estate review sites in the country:

 

 

Extremely knowledgeable

I had trouble with a previous lender not understanding my income structure and Alan Van Zee was recommended to me by a friend.  I called him and within 5 hours of me telling my story and what was going on, Alan Van Zee called me and said we have a loan.  I was stunned!  Then the real work began, and Alan's office made it so easy.  They were quick to answer when I needed help, they were kind about answering questions, emails were answered promptly, and they were proficient, knowledgeable, and professional.  I believe I would not have gotten a loan for my condo had I not found Hawaii Mortgage.  I appreciate them very much and will use them again to refinance my condo down the road.  You won't ever regret using this company, I promise.

 

 

 

Great Lender for Veterans!

We were referred to Alan and he was awesome to work with!  He was extremely knowledgeable of the VA lending process and paperwork required.  Alan went above and beyond to ensure we received the best possible interest rate for our loan.  We’d highly recommend him if you’re looking for someone who delivers outstanding service, excellent communications, and the best possible mortgage rate!

 

If you would like to read more reviews of what our clients think of our service, visit the following link:

https://www.zillow.com/lender-profile/Alan%20Zukerkorn/

Do you think all lenders are the same?

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