
Mortgage Market News and Insight
For the Weekend of June 22nd, 2024
Hawaii’s Most Read Mortgage Publication for 16 Years
Volume 16 – Issue 41
Compliments of
Alan Van Zee
President | NMLS #: 297154
Hawaii Mortgage Company, Inc.
Company NMLS #: 232582
Alan Van Zee is one of the top producing Mortgage Originators in the state, originating over $2,000,000,000 to date. He has written and published this weekly newsletter for the past 16 years. It is the most widely read mortgage publication in Hawaii.
Hawaii Mortgage Company celebrates its 24th anniversary providing mortgages to the people of Hawaii and is proud to continuously earn an A+ rating from the BBB of Hawaii.
Short-Term Vacation Rentals – Vital Economic Contributor
The Travel Technology Association and Hawaii economic consultant Kloninger & Sims released the results of a study they conducted on the economic impact short-term vacation rentals have on both Maui’s economy, and their impact throughout the state.
You should be aware that there’s a major battle brewing over STVR’s on Maui, which is the latest county trying to unfairly eradicate an important segment of tourism in our state. Maui Mayor Richard Bissen has proposed to phase out approximately 7,000 short-term rentals that were grandfathered a zoning exemption a quarter-century ago and recodified in 2014. Those units are designated as being on the “Minatoya” list. Maui County could lose up to $91.8 million in annual tax revenue and up to $280.9 million in total tax losses if all short-term rentals are discontinued in the county. If other counties followed suit and phased out short-term rentals, the State could lose as much as $554 million in annual tax revenue.
The study also underscores the significant economic activity short-term rentals contribute to Maui and Hawaii yearly. The analysis found that short-term rental guests in Maui County directly spent $2.2 billion in 2023, resulting in $4 billion in economic activity. Across Hawaii, short-term rentals generated $11.3 billion in economic activity in 2023 and 66,000 jobs.
If all short-term rental units on the Minatoya List are phased out, Maui County could incur the following annual economic and fiscal losses:
- $53.3 to $91.8 million in real property (RPT), transient accommodations (TAT), and general excise tax (GET) to Maui County
- $1.3 billion in economic output
- 7,800 jobs
If all short-term rental units in Maui County are phased out, the following annual economic and fiscal losses could occur:
- $128.3 to $280.9 million in RPT, TAT and GET to Maui County
- $2.2 billion in economic output
- 23,000 jobs
If all short-term rental units throughout the state are phased out by the counties, the following annual economic and fiscal losses could occur:
- $803.3 to $955.9 million in taxes to the State and Counties, that includes:
- $554 million in State TAT and GET
- $121 million in all counties GET and TAT surcharges
- $128.3 to $280.9 in Maui RPT
- $11.3 billion in economic output
- 66,000 jobs
“Roughly a third of all visitors to Hawaii use short-term rentals. On Maui, that ratio is even higher,” said Erik Kloninger, economist and partner of Kloninger & Sims. “Reducing the number of short-term rentals would limit accommodation options and likely lead to a decrease in visitors, resulting in job losses across various sectors of the economy and a significant shortfall in tax revenue for Maui County and the State.”
Why are our political leaders cutting off their noses to spite their faces? I know it’s an old expression, but it fits here perfectly. "Cutting off one's nose to spite one's face" is an expression used to describe a needlessly self-destructive overreaction to a problem.
Why are they doing it? I have spoken to countless people throughout the state, those inside politics, real estate, and tourism, and have concluded two reasons. First, the hotels in Hawaii are very connected to our government with huge lobbying efforts. The hotels have always seen STVR’s as competition and want 100% of the tourists to stay at their properties. Second, the government is pandering to the loudest voices in the room. Right now, that group is the local activists demanding Maui take from the rich and give to the poor.
A group of brave real estate agents on Maui have spoken out about the absurdity of the mayor’s plan. Most of the projects targeted were built for vacation use and are not suitable for long-term living. Many don’t have parking stalls, or insufficient ways to cook in the unit. They’re not homes! And when you consider the monthly carrying costs of maintenance fees and lease rent for some, these units are the least affordable properties on the island. But that doesn’t matter to the activists. They want the government to pay for them to live in the units – not pay themselves.
You may not think you have a dog in this fight, but you are wrong. Owners of STVR’s enlist the services of lots of other small businesses. People that clean, transport people, and anyone involved with food are all contracted by the owners of STVR’s for their guests. If you derive any income connected to tourism, what the government is trying to do will affect you.
How can you get involved? Start with talking with your friends and neighbors. They most likely don’t know the facts behind this issue. The government has been great shaping the story as greedy mainland owners taking valuable housing away from locals. This is inaccurate and deceiving. Next, let your politicians know your thoughts. Start with your county council representative, then your state representatives.
Collectively, we can make sure the people we somehow elected to represent us don’t screw things up for us (again).
And now the week’s economic news…….
Consumer Spending Slows
It was a relatively light week for economic data, and the results were mixed. Consumer spending fell short, but the services sector excelled. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week with little change.
Higher prices and credit card rates appear to finally be slowing the spending of consumers. In May, retail sales rose just 0.1% from April, below the consensus forecast, and the results for the prior month received a significant downward revision as well. Many categories fell short of expectations in May, and particularly large monthly declines were seen in restaurants and furniture stores.
An economic report which has just recently come across the radar of investors and gained prominence revealed surprising strength. The Global Services PMI, measuring the strength of the services sectors in over 40 countries, jumped to 55.1, far above the consensus forecast, and the highest level since April 2022. This strong report increased investor concerns about inflation.
In the housing sector, sales of existing homes in May fell 1% from April, very close to the consensus forecast, and were a little lower than last year at this time. The median existing-home price of $419,300 was up 6% from last year at this time, at the highest price ever recorded. Inventory levels remain stuck near historic lows, standing at just a 3.7-month supply nationally, below the 4.6-month supply typical in a balanced market. Looking at these figures from a different perspective, however, inventories were 19% higher than a year ago, at the highest level in four years. Of note, according to the National Association of Realtors, the average mortgage payment is now roughly 50% higher than it was five years ago.
Although additional inventory is still desperately needed in many regions, the latest home building data was disappointing. In May, overall housing starts fell to the lowest level since June 2020. Single-family housing starts dropped 5% from April, more than expected, and were 2% lower than a year ago. Multi-family units were a shocking 52% lower than last year at this time. Single-family building permits, a leading indicator of future construction, also declined more than forecasted. In addition, a separate survey of home builder sentiment on housing market conditions from the NAHB unexpectedly dropped for the first time since December.
Next Week
Investors will continue to watch for Fed officials to elaborate on their plans for future monetary policy. For economic reports, Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday. New Home Sales will come out on Wednesday. Personal Income and the PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Friday.
Until next week…….

*** Please note that Freddie Mac publishes their weekly rate report on Wednesday mornings from data received Mondays and Tuesdays. The graph above is intended to shown rate trends, and not “today’s current rate”. ***
Featured Reviews of the Week
With every client, we promise to provide you with a comprehensive analysis of your mortgage needs, the best service possible, and the best rates we can find. We would like to share recent reviews our clients posted of their experience with us on one of the largest real estate review sites in the country:
The Best in the Business
Alan Van Zee secured my home loan and was amazing! His team worked tirelessly, was extremely responsive, and ensured I got exactly what I needed for my loan. Moreover, he ensured I was kept in the loop every step of the way and that I understood exactly what was happening at each step of the process. If you need a mortgage, there is no one better than Alan Van Zee and his team. Thank you very much for helping me purchase my home.
Excellent service!
One of the best encounters was Alan and his team during our search for a home. He is far more knowledgeable on financial trends than anyone else I have previously worked with. I will work with him on refinancing in the future. I’m a client for life.
If you would like to read more reviews of what our clients think of our service, visit the following link:
Do you think all lenders are the same?
There is a difference when you use Hawaii Mortgage Company for your financing. Here’s a short video telling you why:
Click the link below to get a quick lesson on why working with a Mortgage Broker will benefit you on your next transaction.